Sequence Risk Lab
Same returns. Different order. Compare the modeled paths.
Average return hides the part that can hurt an early retiree: losses arriving while withdrawals are largest relative to the portfolio. Reorder one verified return set and inspect every modeled year.
Your assumptions
One portfolio. The same returns. Three orders.
Withdrawals happen at the start of each model year. The remaining balance then receives that year's nominal S&P 500 total return.
Order comparison
Compare balances and funding gaps across return orders.
Each path uses the 1986–2025 observations exactly once. The sorted paths are deliberately extreme reorderings—not forecasts, odds, or historical best/worst cases.
| Order rule | Modeled withdrawal status | Ending balance | Ending balance in first-year dollars | Total unfunded spending |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Source chronological order | Funded every modeled withdrawal | $63,314,630 | $23,580,307 | $0 |
| Returns sorted high-to-low | Funded every modeled withdrawal | $90,789,320 | $33,812,723 | $0 |
| Returns sorted low-to-high | First unfunded amount in model year 9 | $0 | $0 | $3,457,718 |
Year by year
Inspect every withdrawal and return.
Source chronological order
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. Funded every modeled withdrawal.
Source chronological order
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. Funded every modeled withdrawal.
| Model year | Source year | Return | Spending | Earned income | Requested withdrawal | Ending balance | Unfunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1986 | 18.5% | $60,000 | $0 | $60,000 | $1,706,322 | $0 |
| 2 | 1987 | 5.8% | $61,500 | $0 | $61,500 | $1,740,431 | $0 |
| 3 | 1988 | 16.5% | $63,037 | $0 | $63,037 | $1,954,787 | $0 |
| 4 | 1989 | 31.5% | $64,613 | $0 | $64,613 | $2,485,109 | $0 |
| 5 | 1990 | -3.1% | $66,229 | $0 | $66,229 | $2,344,755 | $0 |
| 6 | 1991 | 30.2% | $67,884 | $0 | $67,884 | $2,965,279 | $0 |
| 7 | 1992 | 7.5% | $69,582 | $0 | $69,582 | $3,112,693 | $0 |
| 8 | 1993 | 10% | $71,321 | $0 | $71,321 | $3,344,507 | $0 |
| 9 | 1994 | 1.3% | $73,104 | $0 | $73,104 | $3,314,779 | $0 |
| 10 | 1995 | 37.2% | $74,932 | $0 | $74,932 | $4,444,915 | $0 |
| 11 | 1996 | 22.7% | $76,805 | $0 | $76,805 | $5,358,839 | $0 |
| 12 | 1997 | 33.1% | $78,725 | $0 | $78,725 | $7,028,025 | $0 |
| 13 | 1998 | 28.3% | $80,693 | $0 | $80,693 | $8,916,063 | $0 |
| 14 | 1999 | 20.9% | $82,711 | $0 | $82,711 | $10,678,229 | $0 |
| 15 | 2000 | -9% | $84,778 | $0 | $84,778 | $9,636,669 | $0 |
| 16 | 2001 | -11.8% | $86,898 | $0 | $86,898 | $8,418,146 | $0 |
| 17 | 2002 | -22% | $89,070 | $0 | $89,070 | $6,499,507 | $0 |
| 18 | 2003 | 28.4% | $91,297 | $0 | $91,297 | $8,225,309 | $0 |
| 19 | 2004 | 10.7% | $93,580 | $0 | $93,580 | $9,005,303 | $0 |
| 20 | 2005 | 4.8% | $95,919 | $0 | $95,919 | $9,340,106 | $0 |
| 21 | 2006 | 15.6% | $98,317 | $0 | $98,317 | $10,684,669 | $0 |
| 22 | 2007 | 5.5% | $100,775 | $0 | $100,775 | $11,164,393 | $0 |
| 23 | 2008 | -36.6% | $103,294 | $0 | $103,294 | $7,018,008 | $0 |
| 24 | 2009 | 25.9% | $105,877 | $0 | $105,877 | $8,704,808 | $0 |
| 25 | 2010 | 14.8% | $108,524 | $0 | $108,524 | $9,870,348 | $0 |
| 26 | 2011 | 2.1% | $111,237 | $0 | $111,237 | $9,963,894 | $0 |
| 27 | 2012 | 15.9% | $114,018 | $0 | $114,018 | $11,415,080 | $0 |
| 28 | 2013 | 32.1% | $116,868 | $0 | $116,868 | $14,930,032 | $0 |
| 29 | 2014 | 13.5% | $119,790 | $0 | $119,790 | $16,813,242 | $0 |
| 30 | 2015 | 1.4% | $122,784 | $0 | $122,784 | $16,920,600 | $0 |
| 31 | 2016 | 11.8% | $125,854 | $0 | $125,854 | $18,772,005 | $0 |
| 32 | 2017 | 21.6% | $129,000 | $0 | $129,000 | $22,670,916 | $0 |
| 33 | 2018 | -4.2% | $132,225 | $0 | $132,225 | $21,586,010 | $0 |
| 34 | 2019 | 31.2% | $135,531 | $0 | $135,531 | $28,145,533 | $0 |
| 35 | 2020 | 18% | $138,919 | $0 | $138,919 | $33,054,302 | $0 |
| 36 | 2021 | 28.5% | $142,392 | $0 | $142,392 | $42,281,553 | $0 |
| 37 | 2022 | -18% | $145,952 | $0 | $145,952 | $34,535,389 | $0 |
| 38 | 2023 | 26.1% | $149,601 | $0 | $149,601 | $43,346,961 | $0 |
| 39 | 2024 | 24.9% | $153,341 | $0 | $153,341 | $53,939,592 | $0 |
| 40 | 2025 | 17.7% | $157,174 | $0 | $157,174 | $63,314,630 | $0 |
Returns sorted high-to-low
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. Funded every modeled withdrawal.
Returns sorted high-to-low
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. Funded every modeled withdrawal.
| Model year | Source year | Return | Spending | Earned income | Requested withdrawal | Ending balance | Unfunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1995 | 37.2% | $60,000 | $0 | $60,000 | $1,975,611 | $0 |
| 2 | 1997 | 33.1% | $61,500 | $0 | $61,500 | $2,547,751 | $0 |
| 3 | 2013 | 32.1% | $63,037 | $0 | $63,037 | $3,283,427 | $0 |
| 4 | 1989 | 31.5% | $64,613 | $0 | $64,613 | $4,231,942 | $0 |
| 5 | 2019 | 31.2% | $66,229 | $0 | $66,229 | $5,465,902 | $0 |
| 6 | 1991 | 30.2% | $67,884 | $0 | $67,884 | $7,030,099 | $0 |
| 7 | 2021 | 28.5% | $69,582 | $0 | $69,582 | $8,942,097 | $0 |
| 8 | 2003 | 28.4% | $71,321 | $0 | $71,321 | $11,386,156 | $0 |
| 9 | 1998 | 28.3% | $73,104 | $0 | $73,104 | $14,518,939 | $0 |
| 10 | 2023 | 26.1% | $74,932 | $0 | $74,932 | $18,208,214 | $0 |
| 11 | 2009 | 25.9% | $76,805 | $0 | $76,805 | $22,833,832 | $0 |
| 12 | 2024 | 24.9% | $78,725 | $0 | $78,725 | $28,416,262 | $0 |
| 13 | 1996 | 22.7% | $80,693 | $0 | $80,693 | $34,762,349 | $0 |
| 14 | 2017 | 21.6% | $82,711 | $0 | $82,711 | $42,172,341 | $0 |
| 15 | 1999 | 20.9% | $84,778 | $0 | $84,778 | $50,877,698 | $0 |
| 16 | 1986 | 18.5% | $86,898 | $0 | $86,898 | $60,184,345 | $0 |
| 17 | 2020 | 18% | $89,070 | $0 | $89,070 | $70,926,367 | $0 |
| 18 | 2025 | 17.7% | $91,297 | $0 | $91,297 | $83,389,635 | $0 |
| 19 | 1988 | 16.5% | $93,580 | $0 | $93,580 | $97,070,885 | $0 |
| 20 | 2012 | 15.9% | $95,919 | $0 | $95,919 | $112,384,856 | $0 |
| 21 | 2006 | 15.6% | $98,317 | $0 | $98,317 | $129,817,340 | $0 |
| 22 | 2010 | 14.8% | $100,775 | $0 | $100,775 | $148,941,977 | $0 |
| 23 | 2014 | 13.5% | $103,294 | $0 | $103,294 | $168,968,254 | $0 |
| 24 | 2016 | 11.8% | $105,877 | $0 | $105,877 | $188,742,681 | $0 |
| 25 | 2004 | 10.7% | $108,524 | $0 | $108,524 | $208,898,703 | $0 |
| 26 | 1993 | 10% | $111,237 | $0 | $111,237 | $229,597,420 | $0 |
| 27 | 1992 | 7.5% | $114,018 | $0 | $114,018 | $246,680,264 | $0 |
| 28 | 1987 | 5.8% | $116,868 | $0 | $116,868 | $260,895,440 | $0 |
| 29 | 2007 | 5.5% | $119,790 | $0 | $119,790 | $275,078,505 | $0 |
| 30 | 2005 | 4.8% | $122,784 | $0 | $122,784 | $288,248,393 | $0 |
| 31 | 2011 | 2.1% | $125,854 | $0 | $125,854 | $294,168,429 | $0 |
| 32 | 2015 | 1.4% | $129,000 | $0 | $129,000 | $298,093,914 | $0 |
| 33 | 1994 | 1.3% | $132,225 | $0 | $132,225 | $301,912,424 | $0 |
| 34 | 1990 | -3.1% | $135,531 | $0 | $135,531 | $292,529,086 | $0 |
| 35 | 2018 | -4.2% | $138,919 | $0 | $138,919 | $280,031,217 | $0 |
| 36 | 2000 | -9% | $142,392 | $0 | $142,392 | $254,609,773 | $0 |
| 37 | 2001 | -11.8% | $145,952 | $0 | $145,952 | $224,310,471 | $0 |
| 38 | 2022 | -18% | $149,601 | $0 | $149,601 | $183,727,839 | $0 |
| 39 | 2002 | -22% | $153,341 | $0 | $153,341 | $143,250,436 | $0 |
| 40 | 2008 | -36.6% | $157,174 | $0 | $157,174 | $90,789,320 | $0 |
Returns sorted low-to-high
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. First unfunded amount in model year 9.
Returns sorted low-to-high
Same-set CAGR: 11.4%. First unfunded amount in model year 9.
| Model year | Source year | Return | Spending | Earned income | Requested withdrawal | Ending balance | Unfunded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2008 | -36.6% | $60,000 | $0 | $60,000 | $913,646 | $0 |
| 2 | 2002 | -22% | $61,500 | $0 | $61,500 | $664,963 | $0 |
| 3 | 2022 | -18% | $63,037 | $0 | $63,037 | $493,353 | $0 |
| 4 | 2001 | -11.8% | $64,613 | $0 | $64,613 | $377,935 | $0 |
| 5 | 2000 | -9% | $66,229 | $0 | $66,229 | $283,554 | $0 |
| 6 | 2018 | -4.2% | $67,884 | $0 | $67,884 | $206,553 | $0 |
| 7 | 1990 | -3.1% | $69,582 | $0 | $69,582 | $132,774 | $0 |
| 8 | 1994 | 1.3% | $71,321 | $0 | $71,321 | $62,268 | $0 |
| 9 | 2015 | 1.4% | $73,104 | $0 | $73,104 | $0 | $10,836 |
| 10 | 2011 | 2.1% | $74,932 | $0 | $74,932 | $0 | $74,932 |
| 11 | 2005 | 4.8% | $76,805 | $0 | $76,805 | $0 | $76,805 |
| 12 | 2007 | 5.5% | $78,725 | $0 | $78,725 | $0 | $78,725 |
| 13 | 1987 | 5.8% | $80,693 | $0 | $80,693 | $0 | $80,693 |
| 14 | 1992 | 7.5% | $82,711 | $0 | $82,711 | $0 | $82,711 |
| 15 | 1993 | 10% | $84,778 | $0 | $84,778 | $0 | $84,778 |
| 16 | 2004 | 10.7% | $86,898 | $0 | $86,898 | $0 | $86,898 |
| 17 | 2016 | 11.8% | $89,070 | $0 | $89,070 | $0 | $89,070 |
| 18 | 2014 | 13.5% | $91,297 | $0 | $91,297 | $0 | $91,297 |
| 19 | 2010 | 14.8% | $93,580 | $0 | $93,580 | $0 | $93,580 |
| 20 | 2006 | 15.6% | $95,919 | $0 | $95,919 | $0 | $95,919 |
| 21 | 2012 | 15.9% | $98,317 | $0 | $98,317 | $0 | $98,317 |
| 22 | 1988 | 16.5% | $100,775 | $0 | $100,775 | $0 | $100,775 |
| 23 | 2025 | 17.7% | $103,294 | $0 | $103,294 | $0 | $103,294 |
| 24 | 2020 | 18% | $105,877 | $0 | $105,877 | $0 | $105,877 |
| 25 | 1986 | 18.5% | $108,524 | $0 | $108,524 | $0 | $108,524 |
| 26 | 1999 | 20.9% | $111,237 | $0 | $111,237 | $0 | $111,237 |
| 27 | 2017 | 21.6% | $114,018 | $0 | $114,018 | $0 | $114,018 |
| 28 | 1996 | 22.7% | $116,868 | $0 | $116,868 | $0 | $116,868 |
| 29 | 2024 | 24.9% | $119,790 | $0 | $119,790 | $0 | $119,790 |
| 30 | 2009 | 25.9% | $122,784 | $0 | $122,784 | $0 | $122,784 |
| 31 | 2023 | 26.1% | $125,854 | $0 | $125,854 | $0 | $125,854 |
| 32 | 1998 | 28.3% | $129,000 | $0 | $129,000 | $0 | $129,000 |
| 33 | 2003 | 28.4% | $132,225 | $0 | $132,225 | $0 | $132,225 |
| 34 | 2021 | 28.5% | $135,531 | $0 | $135,531 | $0 | $135,531 |
| 35 | 1991 | 30.2% | $138,919 | $0 | $138,919 | $0 | $138,919 |
| 36 | 2019 | 31.2% | $142,392 | $0 | $142,392 | $0 | $142,392 |
| 37 | 1989 | 31.5% | $145,952 | $0 | $145,952 | $0 | $145,952 |
| 38 | 2013 | 32.1% | $149,601 | $0 | $149,601 | $0 | $149,601 |
| 39 | 1997 | 33.1% | $153,341 | $0 | $153,341 | $0 | $153,341 |
| 40 | 1995 | 37.2% | $157,174 | $0 | $157,174 | $0 | $157,174 |
Method and limits
What this lab does—and does not do.
Annual model order
- Increase spending and temporary income by your annual spending-change input.
- Subtract temporary income from spending, never below zero.
- Withdraw the available amount at the start of the year.
- Apply that source year's return to the remaining portfolio.
Deliberately excluded
Taxes, fees, bonds, rebalancing, Social Security timing, later cash flows, intra-year volatility, and flexible-spending rules. This is an all-equity ordering illustration, not a retirement forecast or financial advice.
Return provenance
Annual nominal S&P 500 total return, including dividends, 1976–2025. Source: NYU Stern workbook, retrieved 2026-07-18. Dataset version nyu-sp500-total-return-1976-2025-v1.