Sequence Risk Lab

Stress-test a retirement plan across every observed start year.

Compare stock and bond mixes, spending rules, and early-retirement horizons against documented monthly history. Results describe historical cohorts—not a forecast for your future.

Last reviewed: July 20, 2026.

Historical data coverageJan 1871 – Jun 20231,830 contiguous monthly source observations

Build a historical scenario

Choose the portfolio, spending rule, and horizon.

The lab starts a retirement cohort in every January covered by the source record. It applies monthly withdrawals, observed inflation, monthly rebalancing, and the actual stock and bond returns available to that cohort.

The default example is modeled below. Change an assumption, then run the cohorts.

Historical-cohort outcomes

See which observed retirement starts funded the horizon.

These are historical-cohort model results, not predictions or odds. Every number below comes from the same monthly record covering Jan 1871 through Jun 2023.

Portfolio
$1,000,000
Asset mix
60% stocks / 40% bonds
Horizon
40 years
Withdrawal
4% · Fixed real spending

Success

Every scheduled withdrawal was fully funded through the complete selected horizon.

Failure

The portfolio could not fully fund a scheduled withdrawal before the complete horizon.

Truncated

The historical record ends before the horizon. These cohorts are labeled and excluded from the funding rate. They are not counted as successes.

Complete-cohort funding rate91.2%103 funded of 113 complete cohorts
Complete-cohort failures10Unable to fund a scheduled withdrawal
Truncated cohorts40Excluded from the complete-cohort rate
View every cohort as a table
Retirement startOutcome and completenessMonths modeledEnding balance in start-month dollars
1871Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$7,565,705
1872Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$7,128,221
1873Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$6,692,595
1874Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$6,294,296
1875Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,103,247
1876Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,017,511
1877Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,835,558
1878Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,306,608
1879Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,135,172
1880Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,828,933
1881Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,001,357
1882Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,609,643
1883Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,805,361
1884Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,714,200
1885Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,933,141
1886Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,213,483
1887Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,116,934
1888Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,851,026
1889Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,951,887
1890Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,406,332
1891Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,898,140
1892Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$783,926
1893Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,193,451
1894Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,564,545
1895Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,156,319
1896Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,572,223
1897Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,537,753
1898Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$836,560
1899Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$154,872
1900Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,147,870
1901Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$380,251
1902Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$32,986
1903Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$326,077
1904Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$832,792
1905Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$231,988
1906Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Jun 1940414$0
1907Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$41,744
1908Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$769,845
1909Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$100,775
1910Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$258,116
1911Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$131,909
1912Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$60,296
1913Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$391,382
1914Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$733,376
1915Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,424,894
1916Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$610,286
1917Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,374,765
1918Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$4,385,955
1919Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$6,262,470
1920Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$7,545,391
1921Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$9,551,556
1922Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$7,682,419
1923Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,807,374
1924Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$6,546,573
1925Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,486,633
1926Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$4,711,826
1927Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,681,435
1928Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,227,038
1929Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$693,724
1930Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$899,619
1931Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,560,696
1932Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,764,447
1933Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,248,033
1934Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,186,643
1935Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,308,734
1936Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$462,230
1937Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Jul 1976475$0
1938Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$861,606
1939Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$481,484
1940Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$414,285
1941Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$694,718
1942Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,307,703
1943Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,597,113
1944Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,365,503
1945Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,146,644
1946Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$612,022
1947Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,436,568
1948Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,073,279
1949Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,140,031
1950Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,855,736
1951Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,319,498
1952Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,465,622
1953Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,232,504
1954Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$2,480,565
1955Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,029,096
1956Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$521,419
1957Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$766,974
1958Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,571,467
1959Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$597,571
1960Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$662,481
1961Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$403,258
1962Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Feb 1998434$0
1963Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$90,802
1964Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Nov 1995383$0
1965Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Oct 1991322$0
1966Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Mar 1991303$0
1967Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Jan 1998373$0
1968Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in May 1997353$0
1969Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Dec 1998360$0
1970Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$608,601
1971Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$461,141
1972Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$164,068
1973Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Dec 2010456$0
1974Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$1,657,623
1975Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$4,909,442
1976Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,344,455
1977Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$3,398,668
1978Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,737,161
1979Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$5,922,349
1980Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$8,195,645
1981Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$9,301,547
1982Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$12,428,129
1983Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal480$6,998,925
1984Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023473$6,672,388
1985Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023461$6,368,289
1986Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023449$4,743,723
1987Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023437$3,107,295
1988Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023425$3,823,971
1989Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023413$3,541,389
1990Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023401$2,924,729
1991Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023389$3,317,227
1992Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023377$2,370,224
1993Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023365$2,307,236
1994Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023353$2,069,155
1995Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023341$2,495,991
1996Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023329$1,637,966
1997Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023317$1,377,632
1998Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023305$923,824
1999Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023293$526,146
2000Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023281$560,263
2001Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023269$644,923
2002Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023257$895,367
2003Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023245$1,258,354
2004Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023233$1,001,876
2005Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023221$1,044,631
2006Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023209$1,067,802
2007Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023197$1,021,346
2008Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023185$1,092,735
2009Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023173$1,622,820
2010Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023161$1,434,833
2011Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023149$1,307,610
2012Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023137$1,278,266
2013Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023125$1,197,652
2014Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023113$1,103,793
2015Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 2023101$985,077
2016Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202389$1,084,039
2017Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202377$1,020,114
2018Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202365$925,286
2019Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202353$1,014,670
2020Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202341$875,202
2021Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202329$796,883
2022Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 202317$805,412
2023Truncated — horizon extends past Jun 20235$1,023,203

Share this displayed run

The link records every scenario input so another reader can open the same run. Creating it does not change this page or your browser history.

Galen's interpretation

Sequence risk is the order, not the average.

Sequence risk is what happens when withdrawals meet market returns in a damaging order. The lab holds the portfolio, spending rule, and horizon steady, then starts the same plan in different historical years. The changing result comes from the observed return sequence available after each start.

Financial independence is worth pursuing. Retirement as a goal is the part I question. For me, freedom means cash flow and room to learn what I want to learn, build what I want to build, practice guitar, or learn tennis.

The model can show historical outcomes under the assumptions you chose. It cannot decide what you want to learn, build, or practice with that freedom, and it cannot turn a historical result into certainty about the future.

Interpretation by Galen Weston

Computed start-year comparison

1966 retiree vs 1982 retiree

Both historical retirees use the complete scenario displayed above. Only the January start year changes. Balances are shown in each cohort's start-month dollars.

1966 retirement start

Failure — first unfunded withdrawal in Mar 1991

Ending real balance
$0
Months modeled
303
Real withdrawals funded
$1,007,966

1982 retirement start

Success — funded every scheduled withdrawal

Ending real balance
$12,428,129
Months modeled
480
Real withdrawals funded
$1,600,000

The link records the full scenario and both comparison years. Creating it does not change this page or your browser history.

Withdrawal-rate sensitivity

Rerun the same scenario half a point either way.

Only the initial annual withdrawal rate changes. Asset mix, rule, horizon, starting portfolio, data, and monthly model order stay fixed. Funding rates use complete cohorts only.

0.5 percentage points lower3.5%99.1%
Selected rate4%91.2%
0.5 percentage points higher4.5%72.6%
View the withdrawal comparison as a table
ComparisonInitial rateComplete-cohort funding rateComplete cohortsTruncated cohorts
0.5 percentage points lower3.5%99.1%11340
Selected rate4%91.2%11340
0.5 percentage points higher4.5%72.6%11340

Methodology and limits

How the lab works and what it leaves out.

Historical-cohort model, not a forecast. A failure means the portfolio could not fully fund a scheduled withdrawal before the horizon; incomplete cohorts are truncated and excluded from success rates.

Source and coverage

Robert Shiller's public Yale workbook, retrieved 2026-07-20. The vendored extract contains 1,830 contiguous monthly observations from Jan 1871 through Jun 2023.

Extraction stops where the next source row lacks a published dividend value. No missing month or future return is filled, copied, interpolated, or padded.

The source page and workbook do not publish an explicit redistribution license.

Monthly return formulas

Stock nominal factor: (current price + annual dividend / 12) / prior price. Real returns divide each nominal factor by the observed CPI factor.

Bond returns use the workbook's ten-year par-bond formula: receive one monthly coupon, then reprice the remaining 119-month bond at the next observed yield. There is no duration approximation.

Simulation order

  1. Start a cohort in January of each source year.
  2. Take the scheduled withdrawal at the start of each modeled month.
  3. Rebalance monthly to the selected stock and bond weights.
  4. Apply that month's observed nominal returns and CPI change.

Spending rules

Fixed real spending follows observed CPI. Fixed percentage spending uses the current balance. Simplified guardrails review every 12 months: crossing a 20% band changes real spending by 10%.

The guardrail model is deliberately narrower than the complete Guyton–Klinger portfolio-management system.

Not modeled

Taxes, fees, trading costs, account location, Social Security, pensions, future contributions, and returns after the source window are excluded. Historical results do not guarantee, predict, or assign a probability to a future retirement.